UFC Underdog Pick of the Night: Nate Diaz

by Dr. Octagon, J.D.

Why bet on some big dumb animals in the Kentucky Derby today, when you can bet on savage humans? I picked Nate Diaz before the Don Cerrone fight when he was a bigger underdog, and I’m picking him again. Nick is 9/5 right now on Bovada.lv. I think that he was 2/1 earlier, but the line is moving in his favor, so get on that shit. Here’s why:[[MORE]]

Nate has looked spectacular in his last two fights since moving down to lightweight following his manhandling by Canuckian phenom Rory MacDonald. His boxing is really sharp and he has a five-inch reach advantage over the shorter Jim Miller. I expect Diaz to use his reach to hang back and pick apart Miller from a safe distance. This fight will be a five-rounder, and if you know anything about the Diaz bros, it’s that the only thing they love more than smoking piles of the dank is world-class cardio training.  Expect a volume-punching clinic here. Nate should throw hundreds of punches.

The advantage for Jim Miller is usually on the ground, as he’s a strong in wrestling and BJJ. But that advantage should be nullified in this fight, as Nate is no slouch on the ground either (Gracie Jiu Jitsu), though probably not as physically strong as Miller. That being said, Nate has had problems with strong wrestlers in the past, having lost to Clay Guida and Dong-Hyun Kim, for example. If Miller is smart, he will try to tie Nate up and use his wrestling to take the decision.

It isn’t a sure thing for Nate, but these underdog picks never are, that’s why he’s paying close to 2:1. I like him at these odds, so rather than playing the ponies, give Nate a shot.