UFC on Fox Preview: Great Free Card Tonight
by Dr. Octagon, J.D.
Bellator sucked last night so I didn’t even bother to write it up. Well the girls’ fight was good, but the rest of them stunk. Tonight’s UFC card looks more auspicious. The main card that the UFC is putting on Fox tonight is better than a lot recent Pay Per Views. The undercard is relatively lackluster, but whatever. You’ve got a title fight for the lightweight championship between Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz.
Nate and his brother Nick are both known for always coming forward, so it’s unlikely that the five-round main event is going to be a snoozer. Before that you have Shogun Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson, which UFC boss Dana White recently announced was a title eliminator (although Shogun doesn’t seem like he really wants to fight Jon Jones even if he wins).
Below that you have recently unretired legend B.J. Penn against the second most jacked-up Canuck in the UFC, Rory MacDonald. Take a look at UFC 154. What was the third fight on that? Fucking Francis Carmont vs. Tom Lawlor. And below that was a bunch of French, Canadian and French-Canadian bums. Just goes to show that you can put anything on a card after GSP and people will buy it. So basically, I don’t think anyone would complain if they tried to charge full price for this card. You should most definitely watch it if you want to see some free combat tonight. Full previews and predictions after the jump:[[MORE]]
Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz: So you’ve got a Diaz bro fighting in a state where reefer is totally legal. Let’s hope the scrap packers in his corner aren’t totally baked for this one. Nick Diaz, Nate’s brother, has inexplicably been given another title shot by Dana White, despite having skipped press conferences prior to his previous aborted title shot and losing his last match to Carlos Condit before testing positive for ADD medication (reefer). So hopefully Nick is learning his lesson and is on the straight and narrow, because he’s a great fighter that I am a big fan of.
Back to Nate. Nate has looked spectacular since his return to welterweight, murdering Takanori Gomi, Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller. Unfortunately, he also has a history of getting manhandled by bigger, stronger guys at welterweight, such as Stun Gun Kim, and Rory MacDonald as well as Clay Guida and Gray Maynard at lightweight. Ben Henderson is a huge lightweight and certainly way stronger than Nate. Nate is known for volume punching, excellent BJJ and cardio, and has the advantage as the fight goes longer, even though Henderson also has good cardio.
Ben Henderson is coming off a fight against a much smaller fighter that I’m still positive he lost. The judges fucking robbed Frankie Edgar in that fight. I’ve not really been impressed by Henderson’s recent string of wins. His first win against Edgar was more legitimate, but it still wasn’t exactly convincing. Frankie Edgar is an in and out fighter and it seems like almost every one of his fights is a close decision; he just had some bad luck against Henderson.
Henderson has never finished an opponent in the UFC. He also had a close decision loss to Anthony Pettis in the WEC. His most impressive win was a resounding decision against Jim Miller, who Diaz finished. Then again, Henderson had no problem with Clay Guida, who gave Nate fits. This fight will be a good test to see whether Henderson is a legit champion.
Ben Henderson’s keys to victory involve a lot of clinch work, leg kicks and top control. Nate Diaz needs to avoid the takedown and keep his range so he can use his reach advantage and throw a lot of punches. Ben Henderson needs to throw a lot of leg kicks with those thick legs of his to slow Nate down. He also needs to beat Nate up in the clinch and take Nate down. Nate’s tough in the clinch and has had some spectacular judo throws, but Henderson is way stronger, so that sort of thing might now work on Diaz. The game plan for beating Nate Diaz is to stay on him as tight as possible, and not give him enough distance to punch or throw submissions.
As regular readers of this blog know, I am a huge Nate Diaz fan and am picking him to win this fight. I am also picking Ben Henderson to mention his lord and savior Jesus Christ at least five times, whether he wins or loses.
Mauricio Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson: A few years back, Rua beat the invincible-seeming Lyoto Machida to take the light heavyweight strap. Since then he’s had a bad knee injury, surgery, and has looked like a shadow of his former self. In his last fight he barely squeaked past Brandon Vera. Rua can still take a lot of punishment, and he still hits hard, but his gas tank is suspect.
Gustafsson has looked good in his last few fights, but the UFC is bringing him along really slowly. The only time he’s fought top level competition, he submitted to an Anaconda choke from Phil Davis. This fight will be a major test for him. The major determinant of the winner of this fight is going to be which version of Shogun shows up. I think Gustafsson is going to take this one by decision, but if vintage Shogun shows up, he is the harder hitter and could certainly win by knockout.
B.J. Penn vs. Rory Macdonald: I love B.J. Penn, but don’t think this is a good matchup for him. While he looked more in shape than he has ever been at the weigh-ins, rumor out of his camp is that he didn’t train that hard for this fight. Hopefully that’s not true, because Rory is a monster. In B.J.’s last fight against Nick Diaz, he came out looking great in the first round. Then Diaz wore him down and beat him up, and by the end of the fight he looked tired and his face looked like shit.
B.J. needs to finish this one fast because Rory is so much bigger, stronger, and younger that B.J.’s skill advantages in both the standup and the ground game might not amount to much. No matter how good you are at grappling, it’s tough to do anything with a much bigger, stronger guy on top of you. B.J. can definitely win this fight by outclassing MacDonald in the stand up or by possibly locking in a submission. B.J. is really tough and hard to finish, but I see Rory grabbing a hold of B.J. and wearing him out. I’m rooting for B.J., but if it doesn’t end early, I see it going for MacDonald.
Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick: First fight on the main card, so hopefully there will be some fireworks. I expect these guys to stand up and bang. Swick hasn’t fought that often due to some some weird medical problems that I don’t really remember the specifics of, but he was misdiagnosed with some sort of stomach disorder. Brown has more wins recently, but Swick has faced higher level competition. I’m picking Swick to win this one, but it could go either way.