UFC 154 Preview: Georges St. Pierre vs Carlos Condit

by Dr. Octagon, J.D.

Georges St. Pierre finally returns Saturday night in Montreal against Carlos Condit, but no one knows how he’s going to look. GSP will probably still be beastly, but he hasn’t fought since April of 2011 due to a knee injury that he re-injured. That’s a long layoff for anyone.

The welterweight division has been at a standstill ever since, and there are a bunch of guys who are going to want a title shot after tomorrow night. This card is packed with Canadians from top to bottom for the hometown crowd, and there are not a lot of good fights on it.

Still, the UFC learned its lesson after the Jon Jones debacle and has two good fights at the top of the card. And really, you can put whoever you want on the card when Georges St. Pierre is on it. He’s one of the most bankable stars in the sport. Breakdown of the main card after the jump:[[MORE]]

St. Pierre vs. Condit: St. Pierre is probably going to manhandle Condit for five rounds, like he does to everyone else. Condit needs to keep the fight on the feet, because St. Pierre is way better on the ground, but it’s going to be dangerous to throw a lot of kicks because of the risk of getting taken down. That’s the thing that is so difficult about St. Pierre. His standup defense is good. He keeps his hand up, works the jab, and the leg kicks. He made Josh Koschek look like fucking ET just by jabbing him in the eye all night. Plus, there is always the threat of an ultra-quick takedown.

We’ll see if St. Pierre is still timing his shot like he used to. If that’s the case, Carlos is going to spend a lot of time on his back getting pounded. Condit’s got a massive height (6'2") and reach advantage over the shorter St. Pierre, which is also going to translate to a significant strength disadvantage. Condit needs to use the reach and try to get some strikes in without getting taken down, and hope that the knee injury has slowed Georges down considerably.

It’s not impossible that Carlos’ striking wins the day, but if we see a healthy St. Pierre, he is going to be the clear favorite. The line’s moving in Condit’s favor, probably due to the St. Pierre injury.

Johny Hendricks vs. Martin Kampmann: Former training partners here. Johny used to be Kampmann’s wrestling coach, but that was a while back. If you’re going by wins against quality opponents, Kampmann is actually more deserving of a title shot than Condit on paper. In fact, he’s already beaten Condit. He was also on the bad side of two close decisions against Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields.

I saw the Sanchez fight and couldn’t believe that he didn’t win it. He beat Sanchez to a bloody pulp. The disconcerting thing about Kampmann is that while his striking is killer, his defense isn’t always there. He generally gets hit a lot when he is facing a quality striker. He also can end up on the ground, but he has an active guard, and can score a submission from his back.

Johny Hendricks clearly has one-punch power and if that punch happens to find Kampmann’s face, it could be lights out for him. It seems as though Johny’s striking has gotten better with every fight. These NCAA wrestling champs, when they figure out how to punch, it’s just scary.  Hendricks is the favorite in this fight, as most are figuring that Hendricks will probably land a knockout blow at some point in the fight, or just outwrestle Kampmann.

But keep in mind that Hendricks has never fought a great striker. He’s gotten his wins almost exclusively against wrestlers. If the Dane can keep it on the feet and avoid the knockout, he could outstrike Hendricks. Should be a great fight.

Tom Lawlor vs. Francis Carmont: Carmont has a bunch of wins against suspect opponents and is the favorite. He hasn’t lost in a long time. Lawlor’s pretty tough but inconsistent.

Nick Ring vs. Costa Phillipou: This card went downhill fast didn’t it? Phillipou’s the better fighter and the favorite. Ring is from Canada. Be careful betting on these fights at the sold-out Bell Centre full of screaming French Canadians because if it’s close, you know who is going to win this one. Ring won a bullshit decision against Court McGee the last time he fought in Canada. Might be good to bet on another Nick Ring bullshit hometown decision here.

Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza: Former title contender Mark Hominick is the Canadian in this fight. He’s getting a pretty favorable matchup at home, which is good for him because he’s coming off a three-fight losing streak. Hominick should win this one.