UFC 153 Preview: Anderson Silva vs Stefan Bonnar
by Dr. Octagon, J.D.
Anderson Silva vs. Stefan Bonnar: Bonnar is a 13 to 1 underdog in this fight. I believe that’s the biggest underdog in a main event, ever. He’s a light heavyweight brawler that was willing to come out of retirement to take this fight. Anderson Silva has two fights in the UFC at light heavyweight against James Irvin and Forrest Griffin, and both fighters tested positive for illegal substances afterwards. Forrest for Xanax and Irvin for painkillers. He knocked them both out in the first round.
It will be interesting to see how one of the quickest men in MMA fares against a light heavyweight not high on downers. Bonnar is a maniac, always comes forward and I don’t believe that he’s ever been knocked out. People aren’t giving Bonnar a chance, and while he doesn’t have much of one, you can get parlay-level odds for betting on him and he’s probably worth a little more than that. Before the Jon Jones-Vitor Belfort fight, I would have said I like Bonnar in this fight better than I liked Belfort, and Belfort almost beat Jones in the first. [[MORE]]
Bonnar is bigger than Anderson and can take a shot, so he might be able to get lucky. As we saw with Fedor vs. Bigfoot, even a vastly more skilled fighter can fall victim to a larger man, although the size disparity isn’t as large in this case. Anything can happen in MMA, but Bonnar is most likely going to spend a few rounds looking like a slow-moving punching bag, as the anxiety-free Forrest did. Forrest has beaten pre-retirement Bonnar twice and Anderson made Forrest foolish, as you would know if you’ve seen any of the highlight reel clips from the promo.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogeira vs. Dave Herman: Here you’ve got an old star against a young bum. While I enjoy Herman’s antics, he’s been knocked out in the first round by Roy Nelson and Stefan Struve. Nog’s boxing looked sharp in his last fight before Frank Mir nearly pulled his arm off. Remember, this fight is being held in a stadium full of blood thirsty Brazilians, and Zuffa is trying to keep the place from exploding, so the natives are getting some soft matchups. Herman’s got a chance, but he’s a significant underdog.
Glover Teixeira vs. Fabio Maldonado: Everyone is scared of Glover. Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua both didn’t want to fight him. Fabio Maldonado asked for this fight and is filling in for an injured/unmotivated Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.
Maldonado is one of the better boxers in the light heavyweight division and has a pair of close losses recently that could have gone his way. Glover is a highly-touted prospect, but hasn’t had a ton of great competition. Fabio’s a 3 to 1 dog in this one, and probably deserves a little better than that. That being said, Fabio doesn’t really have much takedown defense, and his clinch work isn’t great either. He needs to keep his distance so that he can work his boxing if he wants to have a chance to win.
Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva: Jon Fitch is tied for the most decision victories in the octagon. He’s the definition of a boring wrestler and is coming off a 12-second knockout loss to Johny Hendricks. Before that, Fitch was always mentioned as one of the top welterweights. Hopefully Silva will be able to finish this one early because if not, you’ll be watching three rounds of lay and pray from the master of the scorecards.
Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado: These guys fought before and Prado’s striking was looking really sharp before Phil accidentally stuck a finger in his eye 90 seconds into the fight. That’s the only time Wagner’s ever been in the octagon, but he had a ton of first round knockouts in Brazil. Phil’s still a heavy favorite, but Phil’s thing is his wrestling. The expectation is Phil by lay-and-pray or submission, but if Wagner can keep it on the feet he has a chance.
Demian Maia vs. Rick Story: People were really high on Story until he lost to late replacement (and recently dropped fighter) Charlie Brenneman, who stifled him with wrestling. Story then lost to Martin Kampmann before beating UFC rookie Brock Jardine. Demian Maia is a BJJ guy that doesn’t really have a good way of getting the fight to the ground and doesn’t punch really hard. I like Story in this one.