UFC 140: Jon Jones vs Lyoto Machida, a Cogitation
by Doctor Octagon, J.D.
Sorry I’ve been away for a while, but the meatspace job has been pretty insane lately. Rashad Evans, shortly after he predicted Jon Jones (above) would fake an injury to get out of fighting him, has injured his thumb. Jones has been matched up instead with Lyoto Machida for UFC 140 in Toronto on December 10th. The odds are posted and Machida is at +275, which makes him less of an underdog than Rashad, who was pegged at +325. That’s probably about right.
If you’re new to the sport and don’t know Machida, he’s the last light heavyweight before Jones that people tabbed as being truly unbeatable shortly after he won the title. That was before Shogun Rua came along, lost a controversial decision to Machida, and subsequently murdered the champ in the rematch. People have been really down on Machida lately. Maybe it’s because he drinks his own urine. Or maybe it’s because he thinks he deserves Anderson Silva Money. But it’s probably because Machida has lost two of this last three fights.
MMA is a young sport with a short memory. Never mind that both of his losses were to top-ranked fighters (Rua and Quinton Jackson). The loss to Rampage was a split decision that Rampage didn’t think he won. After the final bell had rung, Rampage sulked like a man that clearly thought he had lost a unanimous decision, only to appear shocked when his hand was raised. Never mind that Machida’s last fight was a victory, a spectacular, crane kick knockout of two-time light heavyweight, three time heavyweight champion Randy Couture.
Machida is not as washed up as people are claiming and has as good a chance against Jon Jones as anyone else in the division. Machida is probably the best pure striker that Jones has ever faced. Yes, I know that Rua beat him, but I still think that when the fight stays on the feet, Machida is one of the most difficult riddles to solve in the division.
That being said, Jon Jones is clearly the favorite and will be a tough matchup because Machida’s style is heavily dependent on keeping proper range. Machida’s standard stance is leaned back with his hands down. Jon Jones owns a 10.5" reach advantage in this fight, so that strategy might not work. Jones might just be able to tee off if Machida isn’t able to keep his unguarded head out of range. Jones is also enormous at light heavyweight and seems to get better with every fight.
In addition to his continuous improvement, we’ve never seen Jones in trouble. He’s got some skinny legs but no one has ever really landed enough leg kicks to test them. His chin has still never been tested. But Machida has legit, one punch/kick knockout power. He’s also very hard to hit. Anything can happen in this sport and we are eagerly awaiting the fight. Let’s hope both fighters can stay healthy until then.