Preview: Pacquiao v. Mosley

Since we’ve been discussing this weekend’s big fight everywhere else I figured it may be appropriate to collect my thoughts here for your benefit. If you’re looking for a longer breakdown they’re available almost everywhere, though TQBR is always a good place to start. The only stats you need to know:

Weight (lbs.): Pacquiao 145 Mosley 147

Line: Pacquiao anywhere from 6-1 to 10-1

Last Six: Pacquiao (6-0, 4 KOs) Mosley (3-2-1, 2 KOs)

The odds on Mosley look a little long to us, but that’s because of the feverish action from the Pacman’s Asian supporters. If I were betting I’d take Pacquiao at 5 to 1 odds. Mosley is a warrior with a great chin, but he’s looked stiff and a step short of shot in his past two fights since dismantling Antonio Margarito.

Shane’s only chance for a win in our view is to catch Pacquiao early and put him on his back or hurt him badly with a counter-right. If the fight gets past round 5 Manny’s speed and unceasing pressure will be too much. But we like the Pacman to pull out an easy unanimous decision with Mosley winning at most three rounds. A KO from either fighter would be a surprise, since Mosley has never been stopped and a loss for Manny may result in the sky falling.

More importantly, we put the odds of this being a crowd-pleasing fight at 50-50, which are great odds for a boxing community that’s invested heavily in the promotion and the fight’s potential crossover appeal. If your concern is the greater health of boxing then the best possible result is a highlight-reel stoppage by Manny in the middle rounds that leaves paying viewers satisfied and first-timers excited about catching his next fight.

We’ll bring you full coverage tomorrow night including the undercard, which features Kelly Pavlik, Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. v. Jorge Arce, and Mike Alvarado v. Ray Narh. None of the fights really leap out at us but it will be good to see Pavlik back in the ring for the first time since he lost the middleweight crown in a war with Sergio Martinez a year ago.