Preview: Manny Pacquiao vs Brandon Rios

Photo by Chris Farina for Top Rank

by Gautham Nagesh 

Tonight is one of the biggest nights of the year for boxing. Filipino welterweight Manny Pacquiao will face Brandon Rios in Macau on HBO Pay Per View. Pacquiao is one of the most popular athletes in the world, while Rios is one of the sport’s most exciting combatants. The combination is a sure-fire recipe for fireworks, and promises to be thrilling for as long as it lasts. Yet I found myself strangely unenthusiastic for both the announcement and buildup to this fight.

Pacquiao has dominated boxing for over a decade, becoming an icon in his homeland along the way. But Father Time remains undefeated, in the sport and in life. Pacquiao’s loss to Tim Bradley last June may have been a farce, but there was no doubt about his near-decapitation at the hands of Juan Manuel Marquez last December. The image of Pacquiao slumped face-first on the canvas will likely dog him for the rest of his career. Boxers are remarkable people, but they are human. No 34-year-old can sustain such a blow without it leaving some impact, whether mental or physical.

Still, this is boxing at the highest level, so the possibility of a lucky, one-punch knockout always exists. Whether Pacquiao can recover is the open question. It is understandable that such a champion would be reluctant to end his career on such a sour note. Very few of the sport’s greatest champions can resist the urge to fight one bout longer than they should. Whether tonight will prove to be that bout for Pacquiao lies in the hands of Kansas native Brandon Rios.[[MORE]]

If the Pacman is anything near his former formidable self, he will be too much for Rios. “Bam Bam” is one of our favorites, a come-forward pressure fighter with no regard for his own safety. Rios brings plenty of danger, having scored 23 knockouts of his own. He is also slow of foot, and somewhat limited when fighting on the outside. Vintage Pacquiao, jumping in and out while landing at every angle, would likely overwhelm the hittable Bam Bam.

Of course, there’s no telling whether the old Pacquiao will make an appearance in Macau. I predict the version of Pacman that will show up will be sharp, but slightly diminished from the fighter that out-worked Bradley last summer. Which means he will be nowhere near the tornado that tore apart Antonio Margarito in Cowboy Stadium three years ago. Even a slower, less dynamic Pacquiao would present Rios with his toughest opponent to date.

Rios is best when fighting on the inside, trading hard uppercuts and power shots in close until someone capitulates. He has a great chin and is willing to pay the price to hurt his opponent. When Rios has lost, to Richar Abril (who was robbed by the judges) and Mike Alvarado, the recipe has been simple: move laterally and exploit Rios’ criminal inability to cut off the ring. Pacquiao is still plenty fast, and he shouldn’t have any trouble making Rios chase him, if he chooses to so.

Yet that’s not what I expect to happen. Both men will be coming off losses, two in Pacquiao’s case, and desperate to re-establish their relevance. This is also the first major boxing match in China, where Pacquiao could prove to be a massive draw, provided he performs up to snuff for this bout. And there is always the speculation that Pacquiao’s political career and ridiculously large entourage have already sapped his considerable purses, and will force him to keep fighting well into his 40s.

I expect Pacquiao to stand and trade with Rios, in a misguided attempt to prove he still has what it takes to thrill the crowd. Both men will land many hard shots, knockdowns are probable, and Pacquiao should ultimately prevail with a late knockout or close decision on the cards. Of course, if Pacquiao proves less durable after the Marquez loss, Rios could have a shot at his biggest win to date. But Bam Bam will be hard-press to win a decision in Macau, so stopping Pacquiao is probably his best chance at glory.

Somewhere around the 8th round, my misgivings will likely set in, as every punch landed means a little less of Pacquiao will remain to represent his constituents as a congressman. Unless Pacquiao really shines, I will probably suggest he hang up his gloves before long. There is nothing worse than watching one of the best fighters in the world slowly climb their way back down the sport’s ladder.

Regardless of what happens against Rios, Pacquiao could probably keeping fighting for years and earn a lot of money along the way. Part of me hopes he smashes Rios with a left early, just so I can look forward to that possibility with minimal guilt. A lot of other writers are convinced that Pacquiao will do just that. I’m not as convinced.

I think Pacquiao left a part of himself on the floor of the ring that night against Marquez. I know because some of my love for boxing is lying there with him. He will probably win tonight, and next time, each time against a less dangerous opponent. But eventually, they will feed him to a younger, stronger fighter, and pay him enough money so he will have to agree. Rios may not be that fighter, but that remains to be seen. Whenever it happens, no part of me will celebrate.