Preview: Julio Chavez Jr vs Sergio Martinez, Canelo-Lopez
Photo by Anna John for StiffJab.com
by Gautham Nagesh
Well folks, it’s here. Easily the biggest fight weekend of 2012, featuring perhaps the second most appealing matchup that can in boxing, aside from Pacquiao-Mayweather (Klitschko v. Klitschko can’t be made). I’m speaking of course of the Saturday night HBO Pay Per View main event, where Sergio “Maravilla” Martinez (above) will defend his middleweight crown against Mexican idol Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in Las Vegas.
Of course this is boxing, so even a long-awaited clash between two primetime fighters has to come with some sort of drama attached. In this case, the controversy comes in the form of a competing Golden Boy card that night featuring their own Mexican sensation, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez against gritty underdog Josesito Lopez on Showtime.
The Canelo show actually features a stronger undercard and would ordinarily be event viewing, but not on this night. I’ll be glued to HBO for Chavez-Martinez, which will be the focus of our live coverage. Full preview and predictions after the jump:[[MORE]]
Sergio Martinez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.: When this matchup was first discussed over a year ago, most scoffed at the notion.
Junior’s WBC title was viewed as little more than the product of nepotism and the protection of odious WBC president Jose Sulaiman. Meanwhile, Martinez was a middleweight champion without rivals by which to measure himself and establish his greatness. He was forced to scrape the British barrel for suitable opponents, and relegated to second-tier box office status. Most experts, myself included, dismissed the notion of the two fighting as a murderous mismatch.
Sergio must have seethed as Junior fought in front of huge crowds for massive paydays, all while masquerading in the belt that should rightly have belonged to Maravilla. But all along, Chavez was growing into a formidable fighter in his own right, one that looks positively massive for the middleweight division. He dispatched a series of increasingly legitimate opponents, culminating in a dominating performance against Irish Andy Lee in June. Chavez called Martinez out after that fight, and promised to shut Sergio up. Big talk from a boastful young man, but one that has grown so much over the past two years that his promises no longer seem impossible.
Chavez can take a punch, he knows how to pressure his opponent, and he has learned well from his father, one of the greatest body-punchers of all time. He will barrel forward against Martinez and look to make it into a brawl; if he succeeds, he may steal the early rounds. Chavez is uncommonly big and strong for a middleweight, so Sergio’s attack may not seem effective at first. But Junior is also there to be hit, so he will have to stand up to some vicious overhand lefts from the champ. If he can take those punches without going down, Chavez has a shot at becoming the brightest star in a boxing-crazed nation.
But our pick is for Martinez to prove his worth once again, and continue his recent excellent form with his fifth straight stoppage victory. Sergio likes to move and box, and he should look to stay outside and jab early against Junior, who almost never uses his jab. Sergio is will peck and poke, dart in and out, and likely concentrate his power shots on his opponent’s torso. Chavez is game, but the body shots will take their toll in the middle rounds. He will slow, the pressure will flag, and Sergio will begin landing those big left hands. I’m expecting a late stoppage by Martinez, potentially around the eighth or ninth round.
Martinez looks primed and ready, while Junior’s training habits don’t exactly breed confidence. Chavez has a shot, but he must be able to hurt Sergio early and take his punches reasonably well. That’s a tall order. Even so, this is rightly the most anticipated fight of the autumn and we’re expecting riveting action for as long as it lasts. Both of these fighters genuinely dislike each other, and neither is lacking for Latino bravado. Expect fireworks at the Thomas and Mack Center on Saturday night, which is reportedly a true sell out.
The undercard is solid if not spectacular, highlighted by Rocky Martinez vs. Miguel Beltran for the WBO 130-lb strap and Guillermo Rigondeaux defending his 122-lb belt against Robert Marroquin. Former Martinez foe Martin Macklin also makes an appearance against Joachim Alcine.
Saul Alvarez vs. Josesito Lopez: I’m on record as being opposed to this fight, mostly because I think Lopez deserved better after upsetting Victor Ortiz than to be fed to the much larger Canelo. But I’ll still DVR it and bring you my take by Sunday at the latest. Lopez is a live dog, thanks to his considerable toughness and boxing ability. If he has enough power to hurt Canelo, it could be a long night for the Cinnamon sensation. Lopez will certainly be the better boxer at the MGM Grand tomorrow night.
But I’ve long believed that Canelo is the real deal at junior middleweight, so the pick is for him to win a decision or score a late stoppage over a game Lopez. Canelo’s power should eventually catch up with the smaller man, and wear him down in the manner that Ortiz couldn’t. Canelo is just too big, too strong, and too good. If Lopez manages to pull the upset we will truly have a Rocky story on our hands. Wouldn’t that be something?
The undercard for this show is much better, and free, so it might make a small dent in the PPV numbers for Chavez-Martinez. Jhonny Gonzalez vs. Daniel Ponce De Leon should be a good featherweight title scrap, and Marcos Maidana should bring the action as always against Jesus Soto Karass. Leo Santa Cruz against Eric Morel at 118 is less compelling, but still solid. Overall, a very strong show that is likewise poised to do a strong gate. I guess there could be worse things for boxing than for the sport to totally dominate Vegas on Mexico’s Independence Day.
A little outside our coverage area, but Ring champion Yoan Pablo Hernandez will defend his title against Troy Ross in Bamberg, Germany tomorrow night. Few stateside fans will be watching, but it will decide the true champion at 200 lbs….Glenn Donaire, elder brother of superstar Nonito, will headline a Telemundo show tonight in Tampa against Omar Soto. Donaire is reportedly looking for a shot at the flyweight title after resuming his career following a three-year hiatus.