Preview: Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Saul "Canelo" Alvarez

Photos by Anna John for StiffJab.com 

by Gautham Nagesh

Like Gatsby, boxing is a sport forever reaching for the past. Fight fans are always eager to tell newcomers how much better things were back in the day, when fighters fought six times a week and still had time to work the overnight shift on the docks. Boxing was dead and buried long before Muhammad Ali, Sugar Ray Leonard, or Mike Tyson enthralled the public, and yet it still persists today.

There are many who think Floyd Mayweather Jr. will be the last great American boxer, that the sport will quietly fade from the mainstream after he retires from the ring. It is true that none of the younger pretenders (including Adrien Broner) appear to match Floyd’s quality, but someone  will eventually emerge. Poverty and frustration among American youth appear unlikely to decrease in the near future. There will always be those for whom fighting is the best and only option.

Then there’s the rise of the Hispanic demographic, as confirmed by the most recent election. Aside from being the swing vote, Latinos love boxing, especially those that trace their origins South of the border. Mexico’s current fixation is a ginger-haired, cherub-faced phenom from Guadalajara named Saul Alvarez. To millions of his countrymen, he is known simply as “Canelo,” or cinnamon. Teen idol looks and quiet disposition aside, Alvarez was born to be a prizefighter. He has only one fewer fight than Mayweather, despite being born just six years before “Money” turned pro.

These two men, ranked first and second at 154 lbs. by the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, will square off Saturday night in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand in the biggest fight that can be made in boxing. The winner will become the true junior middleweight champion of the world, and undeniably the biggest star in the sport. It is a position Mayweather has occupied since he dethroned Oscar de la Hoya in 2007 in the sport’s largest Pay Per View event to date.

Hyperbole comes as naturally to boxing promoters as breathing. But this is a fight that sells itself. To put it succinctly: Canelo has a better chance of beating Mayweather than anyone since de la Hoya. Click through to find out why, and who I’m picking to win: [[MORE]]

Both fighters have roughly the same number of fights, but the difference in opposition can’t be overstated. Canelo was built against solid but not spectacular opposition; only in the last couple years has he taken the step up against top-level fighters. In contrast, Mayweather entered the sport with considerable hype, thanks to his famous bloodlines and Olympic bonze medal. He has been fighting world-class opposition for more than ten years.

Of Canelo’s opponents, only Austin Trout was rated near the top of the division. Canelo looked excellent in that fight, showing off more defense and boxing ability than previous efforts. But Mayweather is no Austin Trout. Floyd has made better fighters look foolish; most recently, he boxed circles around welterweight contender Robert Guerrero. Floyd’s record at junior middleweight is a bit thinner, but his win over de la Hoya was impressive, even if the Golden Boy was a bit over the hill at the time.

Edge: Mayweather

If you’re rooting for Canelo tomorrow night, you’re probably hoping for a short fight. Few think Canelo can go the full twelve rounds against Mayweather and win a decision, considering Floyd’s superlative boxing skills. Ideally, Canelo would catch Floyd with a hard punch early and hurt him, perhaps knocking Mayweather down for the first time in his career. But better and faster fighters than Canelo have tried, and failed, to land the right hand against Mayweather. If there were an easy way to tag Mayweather in the head, someone would have figured it out by now.

That leaves the Canelo’s best punch, the left hook to the body. Canelo regularly uses the blow to punctuate his combinations, and throws it with superior speed and power. Floyd is an artist when it comes to taking away his opponent’s best weapon, but body shots are much harder to avoid than head punches. If Floyd keeps his elbow low to block the left hook downstairs, it could leave some room around his chin for Canelo to exploit.

Regardless of success, Canelo must continue attacking Floyd’s body from the outset. Whether it’s on the gloves, the shoulder, or the body, the main goal for Alvarez should be to make contact regularly from the opening bell. That’s the only way to wear Mayweather down and make him vulnerable to a big head shot later in the fight. As for Floyd, he is a good puncher, but his strength is more accuracy than brutal strength. He will probably be content to pot-shot Canelo from the outside, rather than looking for the knockout.

This is an easy one: as mentioned above, few in the sport have ever matched Mayweather’s defense. Only Jack Johnson, who invented many of the moves Floyd employs, and Pernell Whitaker, who perfected them, come to mind. Floyd has made tucking his chin behind his shoulder, aka the “Philly Shell Defense” an artform, and he is an expert and deflecting punches with his shoulder roll. Of course the real key to Floyd’s ability to avoid damage is his total relaxation in the ring. Indeed, there are few places Mayweather looks more comfortable than the boxing ring and the sports book.

Canelo is not a bad defensive fighter; against Trout he showed much better head and lateral movement. However, Alvarez has holes, and at times he carries his hands low within striking distance. That’s a recipe for trouble against Floyd. Alvarez must hope his chin is good enough to take Floyd’s hardest shots, because he will almost certainly get hit cleanly.

Edge: Mayweather

Boxing/Outside Fighting

This category refers to when the fighters are standing apart from each other, as they do at the start of every round. Mayweather undoubtedly has the advantage when the two are in the center of the ring, thanks to his quicker feet and greater handspeed. Alvarez must use his jab to keep Mayweather under control, and try to cut off the ring rather than chasing Floyd around as he prefers.

Floyd will look to land his right hand and step out, moving to the side so he’s not there to get hit by a counter-left hook from Alvarez. Floyd’s jab is excellent, but he doesn’t always need to use it. In this fight, he should be able to land his right hand without too much trouble. The key will be avoiding a prolonged firefight with the younger, bigger, and stronger Alvarez.

Edge: Mayweather

Brawling/Inside Fighting 

This is probably the best hope for Alvarez: a fight fought almost entirely toe-to-toe, with both fighters packed in the figurative phonebook. If Alvarez can keep constant contact with Mayweather, he can negate Floyd’s speed advantage. Inside fighting will also give Canelo the chance to lean on Floyd and wear him down, while landing some of those heavy left hooks to the body.

Floyd won’t go away easily, so it will likely take a prolonged attack from Canelo over many rounds to get Mayweather to let his guard down. The best way for Alvarez to achieve that is to make it an ugly fight, and not give Mayweather any space at all. A little rough-housing from Alvarez wouldn’t be a bad idea either, but Mayweather is from Grand Rapids, which means he knows what to do in a street fight.

The crowd will likely be pro-Alvarez, but not to the same extent as the weigh-in crowd will be. Floyd’s fans may be out-numbered, but they travel well, and they love their man. Floyd has much more big fight experience, so it’s not likely that the atmosphere will affect him. There’s always the danger that the stage will suddenly become too big for Alvarez, or that the months of heavy media access have worn him down.

Then there’s the catchweight of 152 lbs., a condition dictated by Mayweather. Two pounds may seem inconsequential, but Mayweather wouldn’t have demanded the concession if it doesn’t give him some advantage, either mental or physical. Canelo has been looking a bit drawn in the photos I’ve seen from Vegas; I won’t know until the weigh-in, but rumor has it Alvarez has struggled to lose the weight. That would affect him both at the start of the fight, and in the later rounds, when he would be prone to fading.

However, Canelo will have a few key advantages, starting with his size, strength, and youth. Canelo is a true 154-pounder, while Floyd’s natural weight class is 147 lbs. That size difference was too much for Josesito Lopez, and there’s a chance that Alvarez will be simply too big, and his shots too hard, for Mayweather to absorb.

In addition, the greatest foe for Mayweather at this point is Father Time. Fighters have a way of getting old in the ring very suddenly. Someday that night will come for Mayweather, especially if he fights beyond his current six-fight deal with Showtime (the Alvarez fight is the second under the contract). I’d be surprised if Saturday night is the night age catches up with Mayweather, but it will happen eventually.

Edge: Mayweather

So where does that leave us? Well as you can probably guess if you’ve read this whole piece (or this site over the past three years), I think Floyd Mayweather Jr. will beat Canelo Alvarez. We have long maintained that Floyd is the best boxer in the world, and it’s definitely not just because he’s from Michigan. Mayweather is a complete fighter, with few if any weaknesses. He has shown some vulnerability to a good jab, which can be said of almost any technically sound fighter. It will take something spectacular from Alvarez for the young buck to take the crown.

That’s certainly not beyond the realm of possibility, which is why I’m so excited for this fight. I wouldn’t be shocked if Alvarez is the first to deposit Mayweather on the mat, and rub some of the shine off Floyd’s immaculate ring record. Still, I believe Floyd possesses the internal fortitude and ring awareness to recover from being hurt, and get back into the fight. If the left hook starts landing for either fighter, especially to the head, it will be bad news for the recipient.

Ultimately, I see Mayweather taking advantage of Canelo’s technical weaknesses, landing his right hand, and getting out before the Mexican can respond. Mayweather will move a bit, and stand his ground at times, but he should be able to avoid the worst of his opponent’s blows as usual.

When it’s all said an done, I expect a close but clear decision for Floyd “Money” Mayweather, and a massive payday to boot. 44 have tried and 44 have failed. There is no shame in Alvarez becoming the 45th, and he knows this. Just fighting a good fight and going the distance with Floyd will enhance Canelo’s box office appeal significantly.

For Mayweather, a loss would tear the foil wrapping off his golden egg. While the rematch would be lucrative, Mayweather’s drawing power would never be the same, nor his earning potential. Despite being the champ and the Hall of Famer, Mayweather has more to lose in this fight. That’s why we’re picking him to be The One.