Preview: Canelo-Angulo, Mike Reed at Rosecroft & Dusty Harrison

Canelo Alvarez photo by Anna John for StiffJab.com

by Gautham Nagesh

This should be a terrific weekend for boxing fans, especially those from around these parts. The main event is Saturday night’s Showtime Pay Per View card headlined by Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (above) vs. Alfredo “el Perro” Angulo, but there are some fights of local interest on Friday Night.

We’ll be heading down to Rosecroft Raceway later to catch a Keystone Boxing show headlined by Mike Reed (below) vs. Bilal Mahasin in a matchup of unbeatens at 140 lbs. Finally, local welterweight Dusty Hernandez-Harrison will be back on ESPN Friday Night Fights as the opening bout tonight against Michael Balasi.

Read on for full preview and predictions:[[MORE]]

Canelo vs. Angulo: I ran into a fellow fight fan today at work, who confessed he doesn’t plan on spending the $50 ($60 for HD) to watch tomorrow night’s card. His rationale: Canelo is mostly a hype job and not a PPV fighter. My friend’s point of view is not unique; even in his native Mexico, there are plenty of Canelo skeptics out there, especially since he received a one-sided drubbing from Floyd Mayweather Jr. in September.

To be clear, there is one main reason Canelo is big enough to justify placing him atop a card such as this: that handsome mug you see gracing the top of this post. I was in Vegas for the Mayweather fight, and it was impossible to ignore that Canelo’s fanbase is disproportionately female, and especially concentrated among a particular genre of upscale Mexican or Mexican-American. Who can blame them? It’s not tough to grok the appeal of a ginger who looks like the boy next door and fights like an old sailor.

Canelo’s good looks are undeniably a huge part of his box office appeal, just as they are for Mayweather, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., and Oscar de la Hoya, back in his day. Or even Jennifer Lawrence, for that matter. Good looking people tend to attract more admirers than the less striking. Such is life. But Canelo is still a quality fighter, having amassed 42 wins by age 23. If he were simply a hype job, he would have long ago been exposed.

If Canelo is the golden boy in this matchup, Angulo is the perfect foil. El Perro has led a much tougher life, both inside and outside the ring. That includes spending seven months in an INS detention center over problems with his immigration status in the U.S. Angulo has been in with all of the most-avoided fighters at 154 lbs. from Erislandy Lara to James Kirkland. He lost to both, further evidence of why you rarely see blue-chip prospects like Canelo tested until after they lose.

Canelo is a better boxer than he is given credit for, and will likely be the more skilled fighter tomorrow night. But he is also Mexican, and fans South of the border view taking a step backwards the same as getting punched in the face. If he chooses to stand and trade with Angulo, it could be a tough night for Alvarez. Angulo is one of the hardest punchers at junior middleweight, and had Kirkland in serious trouble early before punching himself out. Even Lara went down twice in their bout. Canelo has yet to show he can come back after being seriously hurt.

Canelo’s only loss is to Mayweather, which ordinarily wouldn’t much of a strike against him. But two things about that bout trouble the serious observer: one, that Mayweather appeared to hurt Canelo at several junctures, without pressing especially hard, and two, Canelo was never able to adjust as the fight wore on. The latter especially may prove problematic, because beating Angulo usually means going to war. Canelo has not yet shown the fortitude to survive that kind of tussle.

So we’re going to go against the grain and predict an upset, possibly by mid- to late-round knockout for Angulo. Could Canelo out-box him to win a decision? Absolutely, if he sticks to the gameplan and uses his heavy jab. Could Canelo get the best of a hard-fought, all-action battle? Possibly, and doing so would make him an even bigger star than he already is.

Still, all great rides come to an end eventually, and last September in Vegas felt like the high point for Canelo. We hope we’re wrong, because nothing is more exciting than seeing a young lion reach new heights of excellence. But our money is on the old dog finally getting the bone tomorrow night.

The undercard: What initially looked like a stellar undercard from Golden Boy Promotions has been diluted a bit, and possibly more by some late withdrawals. We already reported that exciting rising lightweight Omar Figeuroa Jr. has withdrawn from his bout against Canelo’s brother Ricardo Alvarez due to injury. That means Jorge Linares vs. Nihito Arakawa will now be the PPV opener. But that’s hardly the worst of it.

Late this week came the news that junior middleweight titlist Carlos Molina has been jailed in Vegas for failing to register as a sex offender in Wisconsin. Now we hear Molina, who was born in Mexico but has reportedly lived in the U.S. since age 4, may be facing immigration difficulties. In truth, most fans probably won’t shed many tears, since Molina’s clutch-and-grab style is painful to watch. But it’s a hard blow for someone that spent many years toiling in boxing to reach this level.

His prospective opponent, Jermall Charlo, must now wait to see if Molina will be released in time for the fight. If not, Ricardo Alvarez may find himself back on TV against Sergio Thompson. Regardless, this development came at the worst possible time for Molina, and may have destroyed all the good will he has built up with his recent gutsy performances. If the fight does happen, it’s hard to see Molina overcoming the extremely talented Charlo with all the distractions.

That leaves the co-feature, matching Leo Santa Cruz and Cristian Mijares at 122 lbs. Santa Cruz is one of the most exciting fighters in the sport, so this one should be entertaining while it lasts. But it’s hardly a reason to buy the card on its own. When all is said and done, Showtime might have been better off promoting this as a special edition of Championship Boxing, rather than a Pay Per View. But we won’t know until the final numbers come in.

Keystone Boxing at Rosecroft: I’ll be ringside in a few hours with Trey for the latest edition of Keystone Boxing’s Friday Night Fights at Rosecroft Raceway in Ft. Washington, Md. As usual, 2013 Stiff Jab Prospect of the Year Mike “Yes Indeed” Reed will be the headliner, and as usual he will be facing a real opponent. This time it’s Bilal Mahasin (4-0), an Oakland native who has fought just once since serving over a decade in prison for armed robbery.

Keystone matchmaker Ross Molovinsky has consistently tried to stage competitive main events since taking over, and we expect another one tonight. Mahasin is supposed to be a tough customer, but Reed is not one to shrink from a challenge. We expect him to eventually take control and win a six-round decision. The undercard features local prospects Joshua Davis, Larry Recio and Marq Johns.

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Dusty Harrison photo by Anna John for StiffJab.com

Dusty Harrison on ESPN: 2012 Stiff Jab Prospect of the Year Dusty Hernandez-Harrison has been keeping busy in 2014, with tonight marking his second appearance on the Worldwide Leader this year. Harrison will face Hawaii’s Michael Balasi, who has been stopped in his last two fights. We expect something similar tonight. The main event features lightweights Rustam Nugaev and Marvin Quintero; the co-feature matches Roman Morales and Khabir Suleymanov at bantamweight.