Doc Oct's Underdog Pick of the Night: Roy Nelson

by Dr. Octagon, J.D.

Roy Nelson is at -130 on bovada.lv right now. If betting were legal in my jurisdiction, I wouldn’t mind betting a couple hundred on him. Here’s why:

Werdum looked like shit in his last fight against Overeem. I’ve read a few spots on the internets where people were saying that Werdum “outstruck” Overeem. He certainly put his gloves on Overeem more, but Overeem was pretty much letting Werdum punch him because it didn’t hurt. Meanwhile Overeem put Werdum on his ass a bunch of times. Werdum throws punches more to set up his takedowns than to do damage. Junior Dos Santos couldn’t knock out Roy, so I’m doubting Werdum will have the necessary firepower. 

Werdum doesn’t really have any way to get this fight to the ground, where he has the advantage. While Werdum is one of the best BJJers in the heavyweight division, Big Country knows what he is doing on the ground. So even if Werdum can get the fight down there, it’s likely Roy will be able to defend. Roy also looks more fit, so he might actually be able to go three rounds without needing oxygen.

With all that said, Werdum is way bigger than Nelson and he’ll have a reach advantage. He will probably have an advantage in conditioning as well. It’s far from a sure thing, but I think Nelson has a better shot than the oddsmakers are giving him. If I had to predict the outcome of the fight, I’d say it will be a decision for Nelson after three rounds of uneventful striking.

The judges are awful sometimes though, so you have to hope he wins authoritatively.