Detroit Pistons 2015-16 Season Preview
Andre Drummond photo via the Detroit Pistons
BERKLEY, Mich.–It took eight years longer than we expected, but the Eastern Conference is now firmly the domain of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
King James and Co. bullied their way through the East in last year’s playoffs despite severe health concerns, and there’s no reason to think this year will be any different. Absent a massive injury to LeBron himself, you can pretty much pencil Cleveland into the NBA Finals next June.
So everyone else in the East is playing for second place. That could be good for teams like the Washington Wizards, which appear poised for long-term success, and bad for teams like Chicago and Atlanta that are in their primes. There is nothing worse than putting together a good team at a time when a great team rules your conference. Ask the ‘90s New York Knicks.
The Detroit Pistons are well behind the pack with a couple nice young players in place, but no track record or proven talent to depend on. At best this year could be the inflection point for the Pistons’ eventual ascent. At the least, it should be the first full season since 2008-09 where they don’t lose 50 games. Either way, I’m back in Michigan and planning to watch the team regularly for the first time in several years.
Read on for our preview and predictions:
Key Players: Any discussion of the Pistons must start and end with Andre Drummond. The 22-year-old center is remarkably bouncy and quick for someone that stands 6′11″ and weighs 280 lbs. A ferocious rebounder, Drummond is the one player that gives Pistons fans hope for a better future.
The league isn’t exactly teaming with big men capable of averaging 15 points, 15 boards and three blocks a night. If Drummond shows real improvement this year on defense and in the post, he should make the All-Star game with ease. Whether that translates into more wins is an open question.
Aside from Drummond, Reggie Jackson comes into the season facing the highest expectations from Pistons fans and management alike. The 25-year-old point guard was handed the keys to the team after Brandon Jennings went down last season and he flourished in that role, averaging 17.6 points and 9.2 assist per game. Jackson is adept at running the pick and roll with Drummond, but he isn’t a great shooter or defender. Hopefully he can stay efficient on offense and improve on D.
Shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope grew into his starting position last year. He has shown signs of becoming an excellent man-to-man defender. But his shot can be streaky, and he tends to play much better in the friendly confines of the Palace. KCP needs to shoot consistently for the Pistons to make the playoffs, especially on the road. This is his third season, often a make-or-break year for young players.
Top Additions: Forwards Eryan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris were brought in to provide defense, outside shooting and to help Drummond on the boards. Both will start the season opener, but it’s hard to see that lasting even half the season. They have similar skills, but Ilyasova might be a better fit with Drummond. Whichever player shoots better from the outside and meshes better on D will probably wind up starting at the stretch four position.
That’s because we firmly believe rookie and first-round draft pick Stanley Johnson will be entrenched in the starting lineup by the All-Star break. Johnson looked like a beast during summer league, and has shown signs he can already defend, penetrate and make plays at the professional level. His main flaw is his jump shot, which is ugly and must improve drastically for him to fulfill his immense potential.
Johnson could be the athletic wing absent from the Pistons of recent years. He should grow into a capable defender, and help the Pistons re-embrace their longtime identity as a stifling defensive team. Given the unlikelihood of a superstar scorer like Kevin Durant or LeBron landing in Detroit, that is probably our best road to long-term success. Any team built around Drummond should have a good chance at owning the paint in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The Pistons bench is mostly retreads and bit players. Aron Baynes will back up Drummond, and veteran Steve Blake will be the second point guard until Jennings proves he’s healthy. Second-year point guard Spencer Dinwiddie seems headed for the Grand Rapids Drive in the D-League. There isn’t much young talent, but Joel Anthony and Anthony Tolliver provide some veteran toughness. Jennings is the wild card; if he can return his pre-injury form, he could provide much-needed scoring and play-making from the bench.
The Rest: Coach and general manager Stan Van Gundy has always built his teams around solid defense, and this Pistons roster looks much improved on the that front compared to last year. There is arguably less talent on the roster this year with Josh Smith and Greg Monroe gone, but both of those players were a poor fit next to Drummond. The Pistons last year were desperate for outside shooting, so the new forwards should help. Johnson looks like a keeper, but the lack of outside shooting could be a problem if KCP doesn’t step up.
Van Gundy’s decision to cut Smith in the middle of last season won me over by itself. It was a clear indication he understands exactly what the problems are with this team. I believe the Pistons will improve and look more like the .500 team they were over the second half of last season, rather than the dumpster fire that opened the year. The over-under on wins for the Pistons from Vegas is in the mid-to-low 30s, meaning they would likely miss the postseason. The local writers are picking them to finish around .500 and squeak into the playoffs. Both sides have convincing arguments.
It would be easy to bet against Detroit making strides, but where’s the fun in that. I’m a notorious homer, and for the first time in decades that is a good thing to be in detroit. The whole city is on the comeback, the Lions suck, and the Tigers are considering a rebuild. What better time could there be for the Stones to start a run with a likable team, one that tries as hard as the Chucky Atkins/Michael Curry/Jerry Stackhouse/Cliff Robinson/Ben Wallace Pistons from the turn of the century.
If the Pistons bring that kind of effort every night, I can see them finishing 41-41. If they don’t, it could get ugly fast. Either way, we’ll be watching and tweeting the games at @stiffjab. Until we’re not.